{"id":308,"date":"2026-09-07T05:23:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T05:23:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/?p=308"},"modified":"2026-09-07T05:23:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T05:23:03","slug":"hanh-trinh-tien-hoa-quyen-luc-tien-te-cuc-du-tru-lien-bang-my-fed-bai-hoc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/2026\/09\/07\/hanh-trinh-tien-hoa-quyen-luc-tien-te-cuc-du-tru-lien-bang-my-fed-bai-hoc\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00e0nh Tr\u00ecnh Ti\u1ebfn H\u00f3a C\u1ee7a Quy\u1ec1n L\u1ef1c Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ec7: C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef Li\u00ean Bang M\u1ef9 (Fed) V\u00e0 Nh\u1eefng B\u00e0i H\u1ecdc Th\u1ebf K\u1ef7"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ch\u00ednh S\u00e1ch Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ec7 Th\u1ebf K\u1ef7 21: Ben Bernanke V\u00e0 \u201cC\u1ed7 M\u00e1y In Ti\u1ec1n\u201d \u0110\u00e3 Thay \u0110\u1ed5i \u0110\u1ecbnh M\u1ec7nh Kinh T\u1ebf To\u00e0n C\u1ea7u Nh\u01b0 Th\u1ebf N\u00e0o?<\/p>\n<p>1. Jay Powell v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3nh kh\u1eafc \u201cv\u01b0\u1ee3t ranh gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecf\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ng\u00e0y 29 th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2020, Jay Powell b\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00ean b\u1ee5c ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u v\u1edbi phong th\u00e1i \u0111i\u1ec1m t\u0129nh \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t lu\u1eadt s\u01b0. Th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng khi \u0111\u00f3 tr\u00e0n \u0111\u1ea7y l\u1ea1c quan: n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 \u0111ang \u1edf n\u0103m th\u1ee9 11 c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c, th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t n\u1eeda th\u1ebf k\u1ef7. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u1ea9n sau nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u00f3ng ma v\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u00e0 Powell g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201cnh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn t\u1eeb virus Corona\u201d. Ch\u1ec9 n\u0103m tu\u1ea7n sau, s\u1ef1 l\u1ea1c quan \u0111\u00f3 tan bi\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh tro b\u1ee5i. Th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2020, \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch COVID-19 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng, khi\u1ebfn h\u01a1n 20 tri\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m b\u1ed1c h\u01a1i ch\u1ec9 trong m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng \u2013 m\u1ed9t c\u00fa s\u1ed1c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1939.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang (Fed) kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a gi\u1edbi h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt hay c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 bu\u00f4n tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu. Trong th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21, b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u201ch\u1ec7 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh\u201d c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Ben Bernanke kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u1ed3i k\u00fd; n\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 t\u01b0 duy v\u1ec1 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. T\u1ea1i sao m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3i quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c Fed mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu? B\u1edfi v\u00ec nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111o\u1ea1t gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n trong t\u00fai h\u1ecd, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t vay mua nh\u00e0 v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cCh\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u ranh gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecf m\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua.\u201d \u2014 Jay Powell<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0110\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng quy\u1ebft li\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, ch\u00fang ta c\u1ea7n ng\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f2ng th\u1eddi gian v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc x\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u00e1u, n\u01a1i s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a Fed t\u1eebng b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i b\u1eb1ng l\u00f2ng trung th\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"http:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/hanh-trinh-tien-hoa-cua-quyen-luc-tien-te-cuc-du-tru-lien-ba-1.webp\" alt=\"Ch\u00ednh S\u00e1ch Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ec7 Th\u1ebf K\u1ef7 21: Ben Bernanke V\u00e0 &quot;C\u1ed7 M\u00e1y In Ti\u1ec1n&quot; \u0110\u00e3 Thay \u0110\u1ed5i \u0110\u1ecbnh M\u1ec7nh Kinh T\u1ebf To\u00e0n C\u1ea7u Nh\u01b0 Th\u1ebf N\u00e0o?\" class=\"wp-image-309\" loading=\"eager\" fetchpriority=\"high\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/hanh-trinh-tien-hoa-cua-quyen-luc-tien-te-cuc-du-tru-lien-ba-1.webp 1024w, https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/hanh-trinh-tien-hoa-cua-quyen-luc-tien-te-cuc-du-tru-lien-ba-1-300x200.webp 300w, https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/hanh-trinh-tien-hoa-cua-quyen-luc-tien-te-cuc-du-tru-lien-ba-1-768x512.webp 768w, https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/hanh-trinh-tien-hoa-cua-quyen-luc-tien-te-cuc-du-tru-lien-ba-1-720x480.webp 720w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">H\u00e0nh Tr\u00ecnh Ti\u1ebfn H\u00f3a C\u1ee7a Quy\u1ec1n L\u1ef1c Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ec7: C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef Li\u00ean Bang M\u1ef9 (Fed) V\u00e0 Nh\u1eefng B\u00e0i H\u1ecdc Th\u1ebf K\u1ef7<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2. Kh\u00fac d\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ea7u \u2013 T\u1eeb \u201c\u0110\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d \u0111\u1ebfn k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean \u201cNh\u1ea1c tr\u01b0\u1edfng\u201d Greenspan<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u1ecbch s\u1eed Fed hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1913, m\u00e0 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 khai sinh t\u1eeb\u00a0<strong>Hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh Kho b\u1ea1c \u2013 Fed n\u0103m 1951<\/strong>. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed1c son k\u1ecbch t\u00ednh khi Fed t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0m \u201cc\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 n\u1ee3 chi\u1ebfn tranh\u201d cho Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 quay l\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 m\u1ec7nh b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3. S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Truman \u0111\u00e3 g\u1ecdi Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed William McChesney Martin Jr. l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201ck\u1ebb ph\u1ea3n b\u1ed9i\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">K\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chu\u1ed7i nh\u1eefng th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m v\u00e0 sai l\u1ea7m:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Arthur Burns &amp; S\u1ef1 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a \u00fd ch\u00ed:<\/strong>\u00a0Burns \u0111\u00e3 m\u1eafc sai l\u1ea7m tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 khi d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o\u00a0<strong>\u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong Phillips<\/strong>\u00a0\u0111\u1ec3 tin r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u1ea5y vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m. D\u01b0\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 t\u1eeb Richard Nixon, Burns \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng \u201cr\u00fat b\u00e1t r\u01b0\u1ee3u punch\u201d k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi. Khi c\u00fa s\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u \u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn, s\u1ef1 nhu nh\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn\u00a0<strong>L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7 (stagflation)<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 m\u1ed9t \u201cv\u1ebft s\u1eb9o\u201d kinh t\u1ebf dai d\u1eb3ng su\u1ed1t th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 70.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Paul Volcker &amp; X\u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ed1ng s\u1eaft:<\/strong>\u00a0Tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi Burns, Volcker \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a Fed b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 t\u00e0n kh\u1ed1c, \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 20% b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p vi\u1ec7c n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n d\u00f9ng m\u00e1y k\u00e9o bao v\u00e2y tr\u1ee5 s\u1edf Fed. Th\u00e0nh t\u1ef1u c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng:\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a Fed tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/li>\n<li>Ch\u1ebf ng\u1ef1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, b\u1ebb g\u00e3y \u201ct\u00e2m l\u00fd l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang.<\/li>\n<li>Thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho\u00a0<strong>Th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed9 V\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i (Great Moderation)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Alan Greenspan &amp; \u201cMaestro\u201d:<\/strong>\u00a0Greenspan \u0111\u00e3 n\u00e2ng t\u1ea7m Fed b\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea1y b\u00e9n th\u1ef1c nghi\u1ec7m. \u00d4ng nh\u1eadn ra s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t do c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 gi\u00fap Fed gi\u1eef l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. \u0110\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0\u00a0<strong>Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t an c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng (Worker insecurity hypothesis)<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 \u00f4ng cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 khi\u1ebfn ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ee3 m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng d\u00e1m \u0111\u00f2i t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 gi\u1eef l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p. \u00d4ng \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3n bi\u1ec7n quy\u1ebft li\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9i ng\u0169 nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p, t\u1ea1o n\u00ean nh\u1eefng c\u00fa\u00a0<strong>h\u1ea1 c\u00e1nh m\u1ec1m (soft landing)<\/strong>\u00a0kinh \u0111i\u1ec3n giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1994-1996.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">B\u00e0i h\u1ecdc c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i t\u1eeb giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch t\u1eeb \u201cph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n\u201d sang \u201c\u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n\u201d. Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m\u00a0<strong>B\u00e1t r\u01b0\u1ee3u punch (punch bowl)<\/strong>\u00a0c\u1ee7a Martin Jr. kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u00ecnh \u1ea3nh \u1ea9n d\u1ee5; n\u00f3 l\u00e0 tri\u1ebft l\u00fd v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c Fed ph\u1ea3i h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n s\u1ef1 h\u01b0ng ph\u1ea5n th\u00e1i qu\u00e1 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi qu\u00e1 mu\u1ed9n.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3. B\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u1eb7t th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21 \u2013 Khi Fed ph\u1ea3i \u201cIn ti\u1ec1n\u201d v\u00e0 ch\u1ebf ng\u1ef1 Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng 2008<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Khi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh 2008 n\u1ed5 ra, th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi nh\u1eadn ra \u201cs\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o khoa c\u0169\u201d \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean v\u00f4 d\u1ee5ng. Khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea1m m\u1ee9c\u00a0<strong>c\u1eadn 0 (ZIRP)<\/strong>, Fed kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m. Ben Bernanke \u2013 m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia v\u1ec1 \u0110\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i \u2013 \u0111\u00e3 bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i tri\u1ec3n khai nh\u1eefng v\u0169 kh\u00ed phi truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>N\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QE):<\/strong>\u00a0M\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i tri\u1ebft h\u1ecdc t\u1eeb \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh qua \u201cgi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1n\u201d (l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t) sang\u00a0<strong>\u201cl\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n\u201d (b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n)<\/strong>. Th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c mua kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3\u00a0<strong>Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c<\/strong>\u00a0v\u00e0\u00a0<strong>Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o b\u1eb1ng th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p (MBS)<\/strong>, Fed \u0111\u00e3 b\u01a1m thanh kho\u1ea3n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng.<\/li>\n<li><strong>H\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp (Forward Guidance):<\/strong>\u00a0Fed s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u201cl\u1eddi h\u1ee9a\u201d v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">QE kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \u201cin ti\u1ec1n\u201d thu\u1ea7n t\u00fay \u0111\u1ec3 chi ti\u00eau, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u00f4 ti\u1ec1n kho\u00e1ng h\u1eadu. N\u00f3 h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ecbch tr\u1ea7n, c\u1ee9u h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh kh\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">4. Th\u1eed l\u1eeda \u0110\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch COVID-19 \u2013 Powell Fed v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u201cRanh gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecf\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0110\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch 2020 kh\u00f4ng cho Powell s\u1ef1 xa x\u1ec9 c\u1ee7a th\u1eddi gian nh\u01b0 Bernanke n\u0103m 2008. Trong th\u00e1ng 3\/2020, Powell \u0111\u00e3 tung ra to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 kho v\u0169 kh\u00ed c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n t\u1ed1c: c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 0, tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p vay v\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, Fed \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c sang khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5\u00a0<strong>Nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trung b\u00ecnh linh ho\u1ea1t (FAIT)<\/strong>. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ef1c l\u1edbn: thay v\u00ec ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea7u, Fed s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u201cch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf\u201d v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c 2% trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u1ea5p tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. T\u1ea1i sao? V\u00ec Powell \u01b0u ti\u00ean ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi gi\u00e1, ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua nh\u1eefng ranh gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecf v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u1ea5m k\u1ef5 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">5. Nh\u1eefng ranh gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 g\u00f3c khu\u1ea5t \u2013 Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u201cThu\u1ed1c ch\u1eefa b\u00e1ch b\u1ec7nh\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn, b\u00f3ng t\u1ed1i c\u00e0ng d\u00e0i. Bernanke th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfc \u0111\u0169a th\u1ea7n:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>B\u1ea5t b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1eb3ng v\u00e0 \u201cC\u00f4ng ty x\u00e1c s\u1ed1ng\u201d:<\/strong>\u00a0QE \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n) t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 nhanh h\u01a1n thu nh\u1eadp, khi\u1ebfn ng\u01b0\u1eddi gi\u00e0u c\u00e0ng gi\u00e0u h\u01a1n. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p k\u00e9o d\u00e0i nu\u00f4i d\u01b0\u1ee1ng c\u00e1c\u00a0<strong>c\u00f4ng ty x\u00e1c s\u1ed1ng (zombie companies)<\/strong>\u00a0v\u1ed1n ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i nh\u1edd n\u1ee3 vay gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb.<\/li>\n<li><strong>T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp d\u01b0\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c:<\/strong>\u00a0L\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i khi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u1eeb c\u00e1c T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0\u00a0<strong>Trump<\/strong>\u00a0hay\u00a0<strong>Biden<\/strong>\u00a0l\u00ean Powell kh\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c g\u00ec Nixon t\u1eebng l\u00e0m v\u1edbi Burns. S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n qu\u00fd gi\u00e1 nh\u1ea5t nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng d\u1ec5 t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed.<\/li>\n<li><strong>S\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a \u201c\u0110\u1ea9y m\u1ed9t s\u1ee3i d\u00e2y\u201d:<\/strong>\u00a0Khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 qu\u00e1 th\u1ea5p, n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c b\u01a1m th\u00eam ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Fed s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 nh\u01b0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng\u00a0<strong>\u201c\u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ed9t s\u1ee3i d\u00e2y\u201d (pushing on a string)<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 v\u00f4 hi\u1ec7u n\u1ebfu thi\u1ebfu \u0111i s\u1ef1 ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a (thu\u1ebf v\u00e0 chi ti\u00eau Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vi\u1ec7c qu\u00e1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o Fed \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra\u00a0<strong>R\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ee9c (moral hazard)<\/strong>, n\u01a1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tin r\u1eb1ng Fed s\u1ebd lu\u00f4n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ee9u v\u00e3n m\u1ecdi sai l\u1ea7m (Too big to fail).<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">6. T\u01b0\u01a1ng lai ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u2013 Ch\u00e2n tr\u1eddi c\u1ee7a Ti\u1ec1n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 (CBDC) v\u00e0 Ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nh\u00ecn v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc, Fed \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng \u201ck\u1ebb ph\u00e1 b\u1ec9nh\u201d c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>USD K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 (CBDC):<\/strong>\u00a0Ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 thanh to\u00e1n nh\u01b0ng \u0111i k\u00e8m r\u1ee7i ro x\u00e2m ph\u1ea1m quy\u1ec1n ri\u00eang t\u01b0 v\u00e0 \u0111e d\u1ecda h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Crypto:<\/strong>\u00a0Fed coi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t r\u1ee7i ro \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ph\u1edbt l\u1edd s\u1ee9c \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/li>\n<li><strong>S\u1ee9 m\u1ec7nh m\u1edbi:<\/strong>\u00a0Li\u1ec7u Fed c\u00f3 n\u00ean can thi\u1ec7p v\u00e0o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu hay b\u1ea5t b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1eb3ng thu nh\u1eadp? \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh Fed trong nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 t\u1edbi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a Ben Bernanke r\u1ea5t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng: Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ph\u1ea3i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i. \u201cCh\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21\u201d kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 kim ch\u1ec9 nam cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea5u hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1ch \u201cc\u1ed7 m\u00e1y in ti\u1ec1n\u201d l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t h\u00e0nh tinh \u0111ang v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n<div class=\"nip-source\">\n<strong>Ngu\u1ed3n b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft:<\/strong> Maison Priv\u00e9e \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/maisonpriveeciputra.info.vn\/hanh-trinh-tien-hoa-cua-quyen-luc-tien-te-cuc-du-tru-lien-bang-my-fed-va-nhung-bai-hoc-the-ky\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Xem b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft g\u1ed1c<\/a>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ch\u00ednh S\u00e1ch Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ec7 Th\u1ebf K\u1ef7 21: Ben Bernanke V\u00e0 \u201cC\u1ed7 M\u00e1y In Ti\u1ec1n\u201d \u0110\u00e3 Thay \u0110\u1ed5i \u0110\u1ecbnh M\u1ec7nh Kinh T\u1ebf To\u00e0n C\u1ea7u Nh\u01b0 Th\u1ebf N\u00e0o?\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":309,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[],"svh_topic":[],"class_list":["post-308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tin-tuc"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=308"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":310,"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308\/revisions\/310"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/309"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=308"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=308"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=308"},{"taxonomy":"svh_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sungroupvinhhung.info.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/svh_topic?post=308"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}